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Grotta vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Grotta

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aeggir

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.2%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.1%1-16.0%1-24.4%1-32.1%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.5%3-25.5%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-110.1%4+-27.4%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Draw 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

Away win 20.3% 20.8% 4.80 -1.5%

Over 2.5 72.3% 78.1% 1.28 -7.5%

Over 3.5 51.9% 58.8% 1.70 -11.8%

BTTS 64.9% 75.2% 1.33 -13.7%

Home O1.5 63.7% 78.1% 1.28 -18.5%

Away O1.5 49.4% 45.5% 2.20 +8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 14%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.9%

H 62% / xG 2.7-1.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.5%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grotta2.7

Aeggir1.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 51.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GROTTA · PPG 1.00

AEGGIR · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Grotta (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -7.8%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -10.9%

Aeggir (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grotta face Aeggir in Iceland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grotta a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Aeggir 20%, so Grotta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Grotta and 1.5 for Aeggir (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grotta are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.71 for Aeggir. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.7%.

Grotta vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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