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Throttur R. vs Volsungur Prediction— Iceland

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:00

Throttur R.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Volsungur

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.1%1-16.0%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.1%2-18.5%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.6%3-18.1%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.7%4+-111.6%4+-24.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 85.5% 1.17 -23.6%

Draw 17.0% 15.4% 6.50 +6.3%

Away win 17.7% 8.3% 12.00 +67.4%

Over 2.5 67.1% 80.0% 1.25 -16.1%

Over 3.5 44.5% 60.6% 1.65 -26.6%

BTTS 55.5% 59.9% 1.67 -7.3%

Home O1.5 76.2% 85.5% 1.17 -10.8%

Away O1.5 22.1% 25.3% 3.95 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 15%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.5%

H 65% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur R.2.9

Volsungur0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR R. · PPG 2.00

VOLSUNGUR · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Throttur R. (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -23.6%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +6.3%

Volsungur (A) 17.7%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +67.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur R. face Volsungur in Iceland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur R. a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Volsungur 18%, so Throttur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Throttur R. and 0.8 for Volsungur (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur R. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Volsungur. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +67.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Throttur R. vs Volsungur Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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