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Grindavik vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Grindavik

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

IR Reykjavik

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.4%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.5%1-110.2%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.2%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 44.4% 2.25 +21.7%

Draw 22.2% 26.0% 3.85 -8.7%

Away win 23.7% 40.0% 2.50 -24.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 72.5% 1.38 -11.8%

Over 3.5 40.1% 51.3% 1.95 -21.8%

BTTS 62.4% 75.2% 1.33 -17.0%

Home O1.5 56.8% 59.9% 1.67 -5.1%

Away O1.5 37.6% 55.6% 1.80 -32.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 14%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.4%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grindavik1.9

IR Reykjavik1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.00

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Grindavik (H) 54.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +21.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.7%

IR Reykjavik (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grindavik face IR Reykjavik in Iceland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grindavik a 54% chance, the draw 22% and IR Reykjavik 24%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Grindavik and 1.2 for IR Reykjavik (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grindavik are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.43 for IR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.7%.

Grindavik vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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