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Magni vs Fjolnir Prediction— Iceland

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:00

Magni

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fjolnir

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.6% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.0%0-22.9%0-32.8%0-4+4.0%1 1-01.5%1-14.3%1-26.1%1-35.8%1-4+8.4%2 2-01.5%2-14.4%2-26.3%2-36.0%2-4+8.7%3 3-01.1%3-13.1%3-24.4%3-34.2%3-4+6.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.6%4+-23.7%4+-33.5%4+-4+5.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 25.0% 4.00 +9.6%

Draw 19.3% 22.2% 4.50 -7.9%

Away win 51.6% 65.4% 1.53 -21.1%

Over 2.5 74.6% 90.1% 1.11 -17.2%

Over 3.5 53.1% 69.9% 1.43 -24.1%

BTTS 69.3% 80.0% 1.25 -13.4%

Home O1.5 62.9% 52.6% 1.90 +19.5%

Away O1.5 69.0% 78.7% 1.27 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 15%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob69.3%

A 52% / xG 2.1-2.9 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 1–2 6.1%

#3 2–3 6.0%

#4 1–3 5.8%

#5 1–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magni2.1

Fjolnir2.9

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGNI · PPG 1.40

FJOLNIR · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Magni (H) 29.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +9.6%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -7.9%

Fjolnir (A) 51.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magni face Fjolnir in Iceland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magni a 29% chance, the draw 19% and Fjolnir 52%, so Fjolnir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Magni and 2.9 for Fjolnir (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magni are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Fjolnir. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 5-2.

Magni vs Fjolnir Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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