Today / Iceland / KR Reykjavik vs Stjarnan

KR Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 16:00

KR Reykjavik

PPG 2.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stjarnan

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.5%0-20.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-01.0%1-12.0%1-22.1%1-31.4%1-4+1.2%2 2-01.9%2-14.0%2-24.1%2-32.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.5%3-15.2%3-25.4%3-33.7%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-114.5%4+-214.9%4+-310.2%4+-4+8.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Draw 16.2% 20.8% 4.80 -13.3%

Away win 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Over 2.5 79.5% 89.3% 1.12 -11.0%

Over 3.5 62.2% 74.1% 1.35 -16.0%

BTTS 69.3% 85.5% 1.17 -18.9%

Home O1.5 77.8% 84.7% 1.18 -8.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 59.9% 1.67 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 14%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.3%

H 62% / xG 3.9-2.1 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.4%

#2 4–2 5.3%

#3 3–1 5.2%

#4 4–1 5.1%

#5 5–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KR Reykjavik3.9

Stjarnan2.1

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 62.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.75

STJARNAN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.75) vs P(Home)=62.1%

Win probability 1X2

KR Reykjavik (H) 62.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -5.0%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -13.3%

Stjarnan (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

KR Reykjavik face Stjarnan in Iceland on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KR Reykjavik a 62% chance, the draw 16% and Stjarnan 22%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for KR Reykjavik and 2.1 for Stjarnan (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KR Reykjavik are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 1.33 for Stjarnan. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

KR Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland Predictions