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IBV vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 14:00

IBV

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

KA Akureyri

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.2%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.9%1-19.8%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.8%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 43.5% 2.30 +14.5%

Draw 22.1% 26.7% 3.75 -10.3%

Away win 28.1% 39.2% 2.55 -17.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 41.6% 47.6% 2.10 -12.6%

BTTS 63.4% 73.5% 1.36 -13.8%

Home O1.5 56.8% 57.8% 1.73 -1.7%

Away O1.5 39.0% 54.6% 1.83 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 14%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IBV1.9

KA Akureyri1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IBV · PPG 1.43

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

IBV (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +14.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

KA Akureyri (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

IBV face KA Akureyri in Iceland on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IBV a 50% chance, the draw 22% and KA Akureyri 28%, so IBV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for IBV and 1.4 for KA Akureyri (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IBV are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for KA Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.5%.

IBV vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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