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Hafnarfjordur vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 19:15

Hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.86 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Breidablik

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.7%0-24.3%0-33.4%0-4+3.5%1 1-02.8%1-16.6%1-27.8%1-36.1%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.5%2-16.0%2-27.0%2-35.5%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.5%3-13.6%3-24.2%3-33.3%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.4%4+-22.9%4+-32.3%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 35.7% 2.80 +1.6%

Draw 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Away win 41.9% 50.0% 2.00 -16.2%

Over 2.5 67.1% 76.9% 1.30 -12.8%

Over 3.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

BTTS 69.2% 76.9% 1.30 -10.0%

Home O1.5 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Away O1.5 67.9% 66.7% 1.50 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.2%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.1%

#5 2–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hafnarfjordur1.8

Breidablik2.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.86

BREIDABLIK · PPG 1.29

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.86) vs Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Hafnarfjordur (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Breidablik (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hafnarfjordur face Breidablik in Iceland on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hafnarfjordur a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Breidablik 42%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hafnarfjordur and 2.4 for Breidablik (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.29 for Breidablik. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Hafnarfjordur vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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