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Thor Akureyri vs Vikingur R. Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:00

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vikingur R.

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.6% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-14.3%0-28.2%0-310.5%0-4+27.6%1 1-00.7%1-12.8%1-25.4%1-36.9%1-4+18.3%2 2-00.2%2-10.9%2-21.8%2-32.3%2-4+6.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.2% 7.1% 14.00 +42.5%

Draw 17.6% 13.2% 7.60 +20.3%

Away win 70.1% 90.1% 1.11 -22.2%

Over 2.5 74.6% 85.5% 1.17 -12.7%

Over 3.5 53.1% 67.6% 1.48 -21.4%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 33.3% 25.6% 3.90 +29.9%

Away O1.5 83.3% 89.3% 1.12 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 14%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.8 BTTS prob52.9%

A 70% / xG 0.7-3.8 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 10.5%

#2 0–4 10.1%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–5 7.7%

#5 1–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thor Akureyri0.7

Vikingur R.3.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.1%

Form & verdict PPG

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.57

VIKINGUR R. · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Thor Akureyri (H) 12.2%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +42.5%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +20.3%

Vikingur R. (A) 70.1%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thor Akureyri face Vikingur R. in Iceland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thor Akureyri a 12% chance, the draw 18% and Vikingur R. 70%, so Vikingur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Thor Akureyri and 3.8 for Vikingur R. (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thor Akureyri are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 3.00 for Vikingur R.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.5%.

Thor Akureyri vs Vikingur R. Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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