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Fylkir vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 19:15

Fylkir

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Njardvik

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.6%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.5%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.2%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 55.6% 1.80 -2.3%

Draw 22.1% 26.3% 3.80 -9.6%

Away win 23.6% 28.2% 3.55 -9.7%

Over 2.5 63.5% 67.6% 1.48 -6.0%

Over 3.5 40.1% 46.5% 2.15 -13.8%

BTTS 62.3% 70.4% 1.42 -11.5%

Home O1.5 56.8% 63.7% 1.57 -10.8%

Away O1.5 36.2% 43.5% 2.30 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 11%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.3%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fylkir1.9

Njardvik1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FYLKIR · PPG 2.00

NJARDVIK · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.3%

Win probability 1X2

Fylkir (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -2.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.6%

Njardvik (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fylkir face Njardvik in Iceland on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fylkir a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Njardvik 24%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fylkir and 1.1 for Njardvik (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fylkir are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Njardvik.

Fylkir vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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