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Valur vs Fram Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 19:15

Valur

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fram

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.6%0-25.1%0-33.7%0-4+3.4%1 1-03.5%1-17.7%1-28.4%1-36.2%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.4%2-27.0%2-35.2%2-4+4.8%3 3-01.6%3-13.6%3-23.9%3-32.9%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.2%4+-22.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.0% 30.3% 3.30 -1.0%

Draw 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -7.1%

Away win 49.0% 56.5% 1.77 -13.3%

Over 2.5 67.1% 76.9% 1.30 -12.8%

Over 3.5 44.5% 55.6% 1.80 -19.9%

BTTS 63.8% 76.9% 1.30 -17.1%

Home O1.5 53.0% 51.8% 1.93 +2.3%

Away O1.5 62.1% 70.4% 1.42 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 14%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.8%

A 49% / xG 1.7-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valur1.7

Fram2.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VALUR · PPG 1.43

FRAM · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Valur (H) 30.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.1%

Fram (A) 49.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valur face Fram in Iceland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valur a 30% chance, the draw 21% and Fram 49%, so Fram are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Valur and 2.2 for Fram (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valur are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.00 for Fram. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%.

Valur vs Fram Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland Predictions