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KFA vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland

Saturday, July 18, 2026

KFA

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Selfoss

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.9%0-21.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.1%1-15.4%1-24.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.3%2-17.4%2-26.4%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-04.0%3-16.8%3-25.9%3-33.4%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-19.2%4+-27.9%4+-34.6%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 24.9% — — —

Over 2.5 72.3% — — —

Over 3.5 52.1% — — —

BTTS 69.3% — — —

Home O1.5 66.8% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 14%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.3%

H 54% / xG 2.8-1.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 3–1 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.4%

#4 1–1 5.4%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KFA2.8

Selfoss1.7

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KFA · PPG 1.67

SELFOSS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

KFA (H) 54.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Selfoss (A) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

KFA face Selfoss in Iceland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KFA a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Selfoss 25%, so KFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for KFA and 1.7 for Selfoss (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KFA are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Selfoss.

KFA vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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