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Sigma Olomouc vs Slovacko Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:00

Sigma Olomouc

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Slovacko

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-17.4%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-111.0%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-14.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 61.3% 1.63 -3.5%

Draw 26.3% 28.2% 3.55 -6.6%

Away win 14.6% 19.6% 5.10 -25.5%

Over 2.5 34.1% 51.8% 1.93 -34.2%

Over 3.5 15.5% 29.9% 3.35 -48.1%

BTTS 34.2% 54.6% 1.83 -37.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob34.2%

H 59% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sigma Olomouc1.5

Slovacko0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.1% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SIGMA OLOMOUC · PPG 1.79

SLOVACKO · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

Sigma Olomouc (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -3.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.6%

Slovacko (A) 14.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sigma Olomouc face Slovacko in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sigma Olomouc a 59% chance, the draw 26% and Slovacko 15%, so Sigma Olomouc are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sigma Olomouc and 0.6 for Slovacko (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.57 for Slovacko. This match finished 2-1.

Sigma Olomouc vs Slovacko Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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