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Busan IPark vs Gimpo Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 10:30

Busan IPark

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimpo

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+28.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.8%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 39.2% 2.55 +28.0%

Draw 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Away win 24.7% 37.0% 2.70 -20.0%

Over 2.5 61.3% 47.6% 2.10 +28.7%

Over 3.5 37.5% 26.7% 3.75 +40.6%

BTTS 58.9% 54.6% 1.83 +7.8%

Home O1.5 52.5% 40.0% 2.50 +31.3%

Away O1.5 35.7% 36.4% 2.75 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.9%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Busan IPark1.7

Gimpo1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BUSAN IPARK · PPG 2.43

GIMPO · PPG 1.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.43) > Away GOOD (1.77)

Win probability 1X2

Busan IPark (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +28.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Gimpo (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Busan IPark face Gimpo in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Busan IPark a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Gimpo 25%, so Busan IPark are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Busan IPark and 1.1 for Gimpo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Busan IPark are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.77 for Gimpo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +44.5%.

Busan IPark vs Gimpo Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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