Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Seongnam vs Busan IPark

Seongnam vs Busan IPark Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:30

Seongnam

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Busan IPark

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.7%0-29.0%0-34.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.9%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.1%2-16.3%2-24.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.2%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 33.9% 2.95 -8.7%

Draw 25.5% 31.3% 3.20 -11.0%

Away win 45.5% 43.5% 2.30 +4.7%

Over 2.5 54.1% 47.6% 2.10 +13.6%

Over 3.5 33.2% 27.0% 3.70 +22.8%

BTTS 55.5% 55.6% 1.80 -0.1%

Home O1.5 35.6% 35.1% 2.85 +1.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 42.0% 2.38 +19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.5%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 0–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seongnam1.0

Busan IPark1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SEONGNAM · PPG 1.00

BUSAN IPARK · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Seongnam (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.0%

Busan IPark (A) 45.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seongnam face Busan IPark in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seongnam a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Busan IPark 46%, so Busan IPark are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Seongnam and 1.5 for Busan IPark (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seongnam are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Busan IPark. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.8%.

Seongnam vs Busan IPark Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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