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Asan vs Gyeongnam Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 10:30

Asan

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gyeongnam

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.0%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.4%1-110.8%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-16.0%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 46.5% 2.15 +14.4%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 23.4% 31.3% 3.20 -15.1%

Over 2.5 61.3% 51.3% 1.95 +19.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 29.4% 3.40 +24.8%

BTTS 55.6% 57.8% 1.73 -3.8%

Home O1.5 53.2% 47.6% 2.10 +11.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 33.3% 3.00 +7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asan1.8

Gyeongnam1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ASAN · PPG 1.75

GYEONGNAM · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Asan (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.4%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Gyeongnam (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asan face Gyeongnam in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asan a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Gyeongnam 23%, so Asan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Asan and 1.0 for Gyeongnam (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asan are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.83 for Gyeongnam. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Asan vs Gyeongnam Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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