Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Ansan Greeners vs Suwon Bluewings

Ansan Greeners vs Suwon Bluewings Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:30

Ansan Greeners

PPG 0.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Suwon Bluewings

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-113.9%0-212.7%0-37.7%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.7%1-110.4%1-29.5%1-35.8%1-4+4.0%2 2-02.1%2-13.9%2-23.6%2-32.2%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 12.5% 8.00 +8.2%

Draw 23.7% 23.1% 4.33 +1.6%

Away win 62.2% 73.5% 1.36 -15.4%

Over 2.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

BTTS 51.2% 52.6% 1.90 -2.7%

Home O1.5 33.3% 21.1% 4.75 +58.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 67.6% 1.48 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

ROI 50.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob51.2%

A 62% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.7%

#2 0–1 13.9%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ansan Greeners0.8

Suwon Bluewings1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ANSAN GREENERS · PPG 0.40

SUWON BLUEWINGS · PPG 2.14

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Ansan Greeners (H) 14.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +8.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.6%

Suwon Bluewings (A) 62.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ansan Greeners face Suwon Bluewings in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ansan Greeners a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Suwon Bluewings 62%, so Suwon Bluewings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ansan Greeners and 1.8 for Suwon Bluewings (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ansan Greeners are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 2.14 for Suwon Bluewings. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +58.2%.

Ansan Greeners vs Suwon Bluewings Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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