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Edgeworth E. vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 04:00

Edgeworth E.

PPG 2.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.1%0-23.7%0-32.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.4%1-18.0%1-27.4%1-34.5%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.8%3-15.2%3-24.8%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.0%4+-23.7%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 52.4% 1.91 -14.8%

Draw 21.6% 27.8% 3.60 -13.3%

Away win 33.8% 31.3% 3.20 +8.2%

Over 2.5 67.2% 69.4% 1.44 -3.2%

Over 3.5 44.1% 48.3% 2.07 -8.7%

BTTS 65.1% 71.4% 1.40 -8.9%

Home O1.5 55.1% 61.7% 1.62 -10.7%

Away O1.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob65.1%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edgeworth E.2.0

Belmont Swansea1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 2.63

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.63) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Edgeworth E. (H) 44.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -14.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.3%

Belmont Swansea (A) 33.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edgeworth E. face Belmont Swansea in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth E. a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Belmont Swansea 34%, so Edgeworth E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Edgeworth E. and 1.8 for Belmont Swansea (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth E. are averaging 2.63 points per game versus 1.88 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.5%.

Edgeworth E. vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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