Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Broadmeadow vs Newcastle O.

Broadmeadow vs Newcastle O. Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Newcastle O.

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.4%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.9%1-16.5%1-24.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.8%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-110.0%4+-26.6%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 48.5% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 38.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 58% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadmeadow2.7

Newcastle O.1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.25

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Broadmeadow (H) 58.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Newcastle O. (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadmeadow face Newcastle O. in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadmeadow a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Newcastle O. 21%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Broadmeadow and 1.3 for Newcastle O. (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadmeadow are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.38 for Newcastle O..

Broadmeadow vs Newcastle O. Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions