Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Weston Bears vs Lambton Jaffas

Weston Bears vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 04:00

Weston Bears

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lambton Jaffas

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.0%0-25.4%0-33.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.4%1-19.7%1-28.6%1-35.1%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.3%3-14.2%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 43.5% 2.30 -16.7%

Draw 22.2% 29.4% 3.40 -14.7%

Away win 41.6% 40.0% 2.50 +4.0%

Over 2.5 65.5% 66.7% 1.50 -1.8%

Over 3.5 42.5% 51.5% 1.94 -17.5%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 50.7% 58.5% 1.71 -13.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 55.2% 1.81 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston Bears1.6

Lambton Jaffas1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.5% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON BEARS · PPG 1.00

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 1.63

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.63) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Weston Bears (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -16.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.7%

Lambton Jaffas (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston Bears face Lambton Jaffas in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston Bears a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Lambton Jaffas 42%, so Lambton Jaffas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Weston Bears and 1.8 for Lambton Jaffas (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston Bears are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.63 for Lambton Jaffas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Weston Bears vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions