Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / South East Utd vs South Hobart

South East Utd vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 04:30

South East Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

South Hobart

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.7% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.0%0-10.3%0-21.0%0-32.3%0-4+41.2%1 1-00.0%1-10.2%1-20.8%1-31.8%1-4+33.1%2 2-00.0%2-10.1%2-20.3%2-30.7%2-4+13.3%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.1%3-30.2%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.5% 3.4% 29.00 +122.7%

Draw 9.0% 10.3% 9.75 -7.3%

Away win 80.5% 98.0% 1.02 -17.9%

Over 2.5 81.7% 90.1% 1.11 -9.3%

Over 3.5 70.9% 76.9% 1.30 -7.8%

BTTS 55.6% 48.8% 2.05 +14.0%

Home O1.5 33.7% 14.3% 7.00 +135.9%

Away O1.5 100.0% 97.1% 1.03 +3.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)7.0 BTTS prob55.6%

A 80% / xG 0.8-7.0 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–5 5.7%

#2 1–5 4.5%

#3 0–4 4.0%

#4 1–4 3.2%

#5 0–3 2.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South East Utd0.8

South Hobart7.0

COMBINED 7.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 70.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 1.00

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 2.43

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

South East Utd (H) 10.5%

ODDS 29.00 · IMPLIED 3.4% EV +122.7%

Draw 9.0%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV -7.3%

South Hobart (A) 80.5%

ODDS 1.02 · IMPLIED 98.0% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

South East Utd face South Hobart in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South East Utd a 11% chance, the draw 9% and South Hobart 81%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for South East Utd and 7.0 for South Hobart (7.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-5. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South East Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.43 for South Hobart. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +135.9%. This match finished 1-0.