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Kormákur / Hvöt vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Kormákur / Hvöt

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.5%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.5%1-16.5%1-24.7%1-32.3%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.9%2-18.5%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.4%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-19.2%4+-26.6%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 40.0% 2.50 +33.5%

Draw 16.9% 27.8% 3.60 -23.5%

Away win 29.7% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Over 2.5 70.6% 76.9% 1.30 -8.2%

Over 3.5 49.2% 58.5% 1.71 -15.9%

BTTS 63.1% 77.5% 1.29 -18.6%

Home O1.5 65.8% 60.6% 1.65 +8.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 64.5% 1.55 -36.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.6-1.4 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 4.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kormákur / Hvöt2.6

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir1.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KORMÁKUR / HVÖT · PPG 1.78

FJARDABYGGD / LEIKNIR · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kormákur / Hvöt (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +33.5%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -23.5%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kormákur / Hvöt face Fjardabyggd / Leiknir in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kormákur / Hvöt a 53% chance, the draw 17% and Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 30%, so Kormákur / Hvöt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Kormákur / Hvöt and 1.4 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kormákur / Hvöt are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.11 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +53.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Kormákur / Hvöt vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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