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Selfoss vs Magni Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Selfoss

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Magni

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.9%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.8%1-13.4%1-22.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.2%2-16.2%2-23.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-17.6%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-118.1%4+-210.8%4+-34.3%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.9% 71.4% 1.40 -3.5%

Draw 15.4% 22.2% 4.50 -18.4%

Away win 15.7% 20.0% 5.00 -12.9%

Over 2.5 76.6% 76.9% 1.30 -0.4%

Over 3.5 56.2% 61.3% 1.63 -8.4%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 80.0% 1.25 -2.1%

Away O1.5 35.2% 43.1% 2.32 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 69% / xG 3.7-1.2 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 7.0%

#3 3–0 6.3%

#4 1–1 3.4%

#5 2–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Selfoss3.7

Magni1.2

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SELFOSS · PPG 2.00

MAGNI · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.48 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Selfoss (H) 68.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -3.5%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -18.4%

Magni (A) 15.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Selfoss face Magni in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Selfoss a 69% chance, the draw 15% and Magni 16%, so Selfoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Selfoss and 1.2 for Magni (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Selfoss are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.56 for Magni. This match finished 6-0.

Selfoss vs Magni Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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