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Cavalry vs HFX Wanderers Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 19:00

Cavalry

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

HFX Wanderers

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-14.1%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.4%1-18.3%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.8%2-18.5%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-15.8%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-14.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 72.5% 1.38 -11.3%

Draw 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -7.1%

Away win 14.8% 12.8% 7.80 +9.3%

Over 2.5 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Over 3.5 34.2% 36.4% 2.75 -5.9%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 60.4% 67.6% 1.48 -10.6%

Away O1.5 18.8% 21.1% 4.75 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 3–0 10.8%

#4 1–1✓ 8.3%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cavalry2.0

HFX Wanderers0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAVALRY · PPG 2.50

HFX WANDERERS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

Cavalry (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -11.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.1%

HFX Wanderers (A) 14.8%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cavalry face HFX Wanderers in Canada - Premier League on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cavalry a 64% chance, the draw 21% and HFX Wanderers 15%, so Cavalry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cavalry and 0.5 for HFX Wanderers (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cavalry are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for HFX Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Cavalry vs HFX Wanderers Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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