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Forge vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:00

Forge

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-15.6%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.4%1-110.4%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.9%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Draw 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -6.2%

Away win 23.0% 22.0% 4.55 +2.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 57.8% 1.73 -12.8%

Over 3.5 30.7% 36.4% 2.75 -15.6%

BTTS 49.1% 59.9% 1.67 -18.0%

Home O1.5 54.9% 59.9% 1.67 -8.3%

Away O1.5 18.6% 30.8% 3.25 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 12.4%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 2–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forge1.8

Supra du Quebec0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FORGE · PPG 2.29

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Forge (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -12.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.2%

Supra du Quebec (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forge face Supra du Quebec in Canada - Premier League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forge a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Supra du Quebec 23%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Forge and 0.8 for Supra du Quebec (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forge are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.43 for Supra du Quebec. This match finished 3-2.

Forge vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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