Today / Iceland / KFG vs Kari

KFG vs Kari Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 19:15

KFG

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kari

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.6% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.0%0-23.1%0-33.2%0-4+5.3%1 1-01.3%1-13.9%1-26.0%1-36.2%1-4+10.3%2 2-01.2%2-13.8%2-25.9%2-36.1%2-4+10.1%3 3-00.8%3-12.5%3-23.8%3-33.9%3-4+6.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.9%4+-22.9%4+-33.0%4+-4+5.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -3.2%

Draw 17.9% 25.0% 4.00 -17.0%

Away win 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Over 2.5 74.6% 85.5% 1.17 -12.7%

Over 3.5 53.1% 69.9% 1.43 -24.1%

BTTS 69.3% 82.0% 1.22 -15.4%

Home O1.5 56.8% 56.2% 1.78 +1.1%

Away O1.5 69.1% 80.0% 1.25 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 11%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob69.3%

A 56% / xG 2.0-3.1 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.2%

#2 2–3 6.1%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 1–4 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KFG2.0

Kari3.1

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KFG · PPG 1.29

KARI · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

KFG (H) 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.2%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -17.0%

Kari (A) 55.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

KFG face Kari in Iceland on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KFG a 26% chance, the draw 18% and Kari 56%, so Kari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for KFG and 3.1 for Kari (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KFG are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.33 for Kari. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.1%.

KFG vs Kari Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland Predictions