Today / Iceland / Haukar vs Throttur Vogar

Haukar vs Throttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 19:15

Haukar

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Throttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.4%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.4%1-14.5%1-22.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.3%2-17.4%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-18.1%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-015.2%4+-115.4%4+-27.8%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 73.5% 1.36 -11.7%

Draw 16.9% 20.8% 4.80 -11.3%

Away win 18.2% 18.2% 5.50 +0.1%

Over 2.5 72.3% 82.0% 1.22 -11.8%

Over 3.5 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

BTTS 62.4% 69.4% 1.44 -10.1%

Home O1.5 76.2% 85.5% 1.17 -10.8%

Away O1.5 31.2% 36.2% 2.76 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 11%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.4%

H 65% / xG 3.3-1.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 3–0 8.0%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 4–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haukar3.3

Throttur Vogar1.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUKAR · PPG 2.67

THROTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Haukar (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -11.3%

Throttur Vogar (A) 18.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haukar face Throttur Vogar in Iceland on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haukar a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Throttur Vogar 18%, so Haukar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Haukar and 1.0 for Throttur Vogar (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haukar are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.00 for Throttur Vogar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.5%.

Haukar vs Throttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland Predictions