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Jaro II vs TP-47 Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Jaro II

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

TP-47

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.7%0-22.9%0-32.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-02.7%1-15.9%1-26.4%1-34.7%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.6%2-27.2%2-35.2%2-4+4.7%3 3-02.3%3-14.9%3-25.3%3-33.9%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.6%4+-25.0%4+-33.6%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 54.1% 1.85 -27.1%

Draw 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

Away win 39.6% 32.3% 3.10 +22.8%

Over 2.5 72.3% 82.0% 1.22 -11.8%

Over 3.5 52.3% 65.4% 1.53 -20.0%

BTTS 69.3% 82.0% 1.22 -15.4%

Home O1.5 62.9% 73.5% 1.36 -14.5%

Away O1.5 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -0.2%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.3%

H 39% / xG 2.2-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 5.9%

#3 2–1 6.6%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro II2.2

TP-472.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO II · PPG 2.40

TP-47 · PPG 1.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Jaro II (H) 39.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -27.1%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.9%

TP-47 (A) 39.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro II face TP-47 in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro II a 39% chance, the draw 21% and TP-47 40%, so TP-47 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Jaro II and 2.2 for TP-47 (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro II are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.83 for TP-47. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +29.0%.

Jaro II vs TP-47 Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions