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Kryvbas KR vs Rukh Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Kryvbas KR

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rukh Lviv

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 70.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+30.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-14.4%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-18.9%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-16.3%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-15.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.3% 54.1% 1.85 +30.1%

Draw 19.1% 30.8% 3.25 -37.9%

Away win 10.6% 25.3% 3.95 -58.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 48.8% 2.05 +3.7%

Over 3.5 28.6% 27.8% 3.60 +3.0%

BTTS 41.5% 55.6% 1.80 -25.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.5%

H 70% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 3–0✓ 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kryvbas KR2.1

Rukh Lviv0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 1.91

RUKH LVIV · PPG 0.83

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

59%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.91), Away POOR (0.83) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kryvbas KR (H) 70.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +30.1%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -37.9%

Rukh Lviv (A) 10.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -58.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kryvbas KR face Rukh Lviv in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kryvbas KR a 70% chance, the draw 19% and Rukh Lviv 11%, so Kryvbas KR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Kryvbas KR and 0.6 for Rukh Lviv (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.83 for Rukh Lviv. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Kryvbas KR vs Rukh Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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