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Ansan Greeners vs Daegu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 10:30

Ansan Greeners

PPG 0.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Daegu FC

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-16.3%0-27.4%0-35.8%0-4+5.8%1 1-03.5%1-18.1%1-29.4%1-37.3%1-4+7.4%2 2-02.2%2-15.1%2-26.0%2-34.7%2-4+4.7%3 3-00.9%3-12.2%3-22.5%3-32.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 15.2% 6.60 +30.7%

Draw 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

Away win 55.9% 71.4% 1.40 -21.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 43.5% 2.30 -0.6%

BTTS 60.8% 60.6% 1.65 +0.3%

Home O1.5 37.2% 27.4% 3.65 +35.8%

Away O1.5 67.8% 70.4% 1.42 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob60.8%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 2–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ansan Greeners1.3

Daegu FC2.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ANSAN GREENERS · PPG 0.62

DAEGU FC · PPG 1.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.06 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ansan Greeners (H) 22.9%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +30.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.0%

Daegu FC (A) 55.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ansan Greeners face Daegu FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ansan Greeners a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Daegu FC 56%, so Daegu FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ansan Greeners and 2.3 for Daegu FC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ansan Greeners are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.60 for Daegu FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Ansan Greeners vs Daegu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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