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Gyeongnam FC vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:30

Gyeongnam FC

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Paju Citizen

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.1%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.7%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 47.6% 2.10 -7.4%

Draw 26.9% 30.8% 3.25 -7.5%

Away win 29.1% 30.8% 3.25 -3.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 39.6% 46.5% 2.15 -14.9%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0✓ 12.1%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyeongnam FC1.4

Paju Citizen1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GYEONGNAM FC · PPG 1.55

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gyeongnam FC (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -7.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.5%

Paju Citizen (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyeongnam FC face Paju Citizen in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyeongnam FC a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Paju Citizen 29%, so Gyeongnam FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gyeongnam FC and 1.0 for Paju Citizen (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyeongnam FC are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.36 for Paju Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Gyeongnam FC vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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