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Asan Mugunghwa vs Yongin City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:30

Asan Mugunghwa

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Yongin City

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.3%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.7%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 50.0% 2.00 -6.2%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 28.8% 29.4% 3.40 -1.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 52.6% 1.90 +2.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 30.8% 3.25 +2.4%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 33.3% 3.00 +6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asan Mugunghwa1.6

Yongin City1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASAN MUGUNGHWA · PPG 1.73

YONGIN CITY · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Asan Mugunghwa (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -6.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Yongin City (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asan Mugunghwa face Yongin City in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asan Mugunghwa a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Yongin City 29%, so Asan Mugunghwa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Asan Mugunghwa and 1.1 for Yongin City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asan Mugunghwa are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.22 for Yongin City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Asan Mugunghwa vs Yongin City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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