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Cheongju vs Gyeongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:30

Cheongju

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gyeongnam FC

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.5%0-26.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.3%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.0%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.4%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 40.0% 2.50 -10.0%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -10.5%

Away win 37.3% 40.0% 2.50 -6.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.3% 28.6% 3.50 +9.6%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 40.0% 2.50 -5.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 40.0% 2.50 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheongju1.3

Gyeongnam FC1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEONGJU · PPG 1.00

GYEONGNAM FC · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cheongju (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.5%

Gyeongnam FC (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheongju face Gyeongnam FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheongju a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Gyeongnam FC 37%, so Gyeongnam FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cheongju and 1.4 for Gyeongnam FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheongju are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.90 for Gyeongnam FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Cheongju vs Gyeongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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