Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Hwaseong vs Cheongju

Hwaseong vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:30

Hwaseong

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Cheongju

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.9%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-110.8%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-16.0%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 54.1% 1.85 -2.9%

Draw 24.2% 29.0% 3.45 -9.9%

Away win 23.3% 26.3% 3.80 -6.9%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 53.7% 54.1% 1.85 -0.7%

Away O1.5 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1✓ 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwaseong1.8

Cheongju1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HWASEONG · PPG 1.73

CHEONGJU · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hwaseong (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.9%

Cheongju (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwaseong face Cheongju in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwaseong a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Cheongju 23%, so Hwaseong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hwaseong and 1.0 for Cheongju (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwaseong are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.10 for Cheongju. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Hwaseong vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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