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Mungyeong W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea

Saturday, July 18, 2026

Mungyeong W

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Changnyeong W

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.89), Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.6%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.3%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.5%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 23.2% — — —

Over 2.5 54.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.9% — — —

BTTS 55.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.0% — — —

Away O1.5 36.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mungyeong W1.7

Changnyeong W1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MUNGYEONG W · PPG 0.89

CHANGNYEONG W · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.89), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Mungyeong W (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Changnyeong W (A) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mungyeong W face Changnyeong W in South-Korea on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mungyeong W a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Changnyeong W 23%, so Mungyeong W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mungyeong W and 1.1 for Changnyeong W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mungyeong W are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.88 for Changnyeong W.

Mungyeong W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea

Match Preview & Prediction

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