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Hwacheon W vs Suwon FMC W Prediction— South-Korea

Regular Season - 9 ·Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 10:00

Hwacheon W

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Suwon FMC W

PPG 2.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-114.9%0-28.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.6%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.2%2-15.9%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.5%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 24.4% 4.10 +38.6%

Draw 30.1% 29.4% 3.40 +2.3%

Away win 36.1% 57.8% 1.73 -37.5%

Over 2.5 44.9% 57.1% 1.75 -21.4%

Over 3.5 24.9% 34.7% 2.88 -17.0%

BTTS 48.4% 59.9% 1.67 -19.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 32.9% 3.04 +1.2%

Away O1.5 35.7% 54.6% 1.83 -34.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.4%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwacheon W0.9

Suwon FMC W1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HWACHEON W · PPG 2.17

SUWON FMC W · PPG 2.63

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.17) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.63)

Win probability 1X2

Hwacheon W (H) 33.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +38.6%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +2.3%

Suwon FMC W (A) 36.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwacheon W face Suwon FMC W in South-Korea on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwacheon W a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Suwon FMC W 36%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Hwacheon W and 1.1 for Suwon FMC W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwacheon W are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.63 for Suwon FMC W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Hwacheon W vs Suwon FMC W Prediction— South-Korea

Match Preview & Prediction

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