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Hwacheon W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:00

Hwacheon W

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDD

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Changnyeong W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-14.8%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.9%1-19.5%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-16.1%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-14.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 19.1% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 31.2% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 55.1% — — —

Away O1.5 21.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 14%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwacheon W2.0

Changnyeong W0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HWACHEON W · PPG 1.86

CHANGNYEONG W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

Hwacheon W (H) 59.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Changnyeong W (A) 19.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwacheon W face Changnyeong W in South-Korea on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwacheon W a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Changnyeong W 19%, so Hwacheon W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hwacheon W and 0.7 for Changnyeong W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwacheon W are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Changnyeong W. This match finished 5-1.

Hwacheon W vs Changnyeong W Prediction— South-Korea

Match Preview & Prediction

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