Today / South-Korea / Incheon W vs Seoul W

Incheon W vs Seoul W Prediction— South-Korea

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:00

Incheon W

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seoul W

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.4%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.0%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.4%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 65.4% 1.53 -19.8%

Draw 24.6% 27.4% 3.65 -6.1%

Away win 23.0% 19.6% 5.10 +10.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 35.3% 2.83 -10.8%

BTTS 52.6% 55.9% 1.79 -5.9%

Home O1.5 46.0% 60.6% 1.65 -24.1%

Away O1.5 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon W1.5

Seoul W0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON W · PPG 1.71

SEOUL W · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Incheon W (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.1%

Seoul W (A) 23.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon W face Seoul W in South-Korea on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon W a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Seoul W 23%, so Incheon W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Incheon W and 0.9 for Seoul W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon W are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.86 for Seoul W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.4%.

Incheon W vs Seoul W Prediction— South-Korea

Match Preview & Prediction

More South-Korea Predictions