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Seoul W vs Suwon FMC W Prediction— South-Korea

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 10:00

Seoul W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Suwon FMC W

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-16.3%0-210.0%0-310.6%0-4+18.6%1 1-01.5%1-14.7%1-27.4%1-37.9%1-4+13.9%2 2-00.5%2-11.7%2-22.8%2-32.9%2-4+5.2%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.7%3-30.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 21.1% 4.75 -23.8%

Draw 17.6% 25.0% 4.00 -17.8%

Away win 69.8% 66.7% 1.50 +4.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 66.7% 1.50 +0.8%

Over 3.5 44.1% 41.2% 2.43 +7.2%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 29.2% 3.42 +13.9%

Away O1.5 74.3% 66.2% 1.51 +12.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob52.6%

A 70% / xG 0.7-3.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 10.6%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 0–4 8.4%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul W0.7

Suwon FMC W3.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL W · PPG 1.50

SUWON FMC W · PPG 2.67

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Seoul W (H) 12.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -23.8%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -17.8%

Suwon FMC W (A) 69.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul W face Suwon FMC W in South-Korea on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul W a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Suwon FMC W 70%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Seoul W and 3.2 for Suwon FMC W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.67 for Suwon FMC W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.2%.

Seoul W vs Suwon FMC W Prediction— South-Korea

Match Preview & Prediction

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