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Suwon FMC W vs Hwacheon W Prediction— South-Korea

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 10:00

Suwon FMC W

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hwacheon W

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.1%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-17.9%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 60.6% 1.65 -31.4%

Draw 27.5% 28.2% 3.55 -1.4%

Away win 30.8% 23.1% 4.33 +33.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 34.7% 2.88 -9.9%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 36.5% 57.8% 1.73 -36.9%

Away O1.5 36.2% 29.2% 3.42 +23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon FMC W1.2

Hwacheon W1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON FMC W · PPG 1.80

HWACHEON W · PPG 2.40

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.40) strong but model favors Home (P=41.6%)

Win probability 1X2

Suwon FMC W (H) 41.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -31.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.4%

Hwacheon W (A) 30.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon FMC W face Hwacheon W in South-Korea on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon FMC W a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Hwacheon W 31%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Suwon FMC W and 1.1 for Hwacheon W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon FMC W are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.40 for Hwacheon W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.4%.

Suwon FMC W vs Hwacheon W Prediction— South-Korea

Match Preview & Prediction

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