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Gyeongju W vs Incheon W Prediction— South-Korea

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:00

Gyeongju W

PPG 0.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Incheon W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-113.2%0-29.8%0-34.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.9%2-15.8%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 43.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.1% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 33.4% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 14%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyeongju W0.9

Incheon W1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GYEONGJU W · PPG 0.17

INCHEON W · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

Gyeongju W (H) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Incheon W (A) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyeongju W face Incheon W in South-Korea on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyeongju W a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Incheon W 43%, so Incheon W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gyeongju W and 1.5 for Incheon W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyeongju W are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Incheon W. This match finished 2-1.

Gyeongju W vs Incheon W Prediction— South-Korea

Match Preview & Prediction

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