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Sejong W vs Mungyeong W Prediction— South-Korea

Friday, July 10, 2026

Sejong W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mungyeong W

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-113.6%0-28.9%0-33.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.0%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.8%2-16.2%2-24.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.0%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 37.7% — — —

Over 2.5 47.2% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 49.9% — — —

Home O1.5 35.5% — — —

Away O1.5 38.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.9%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 13.6%

#4 0–2 8.9%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sejong W1.0

Mungyeong W1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SEJONG W · PPG 1.00

MUNGYEONG W · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sejong W (H) 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mungyeong W (A) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sejong W face Mungyeong W in South-Korea on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sejong W a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Mungyeong W 38%, so Mungyeong W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sejong W and 1.3 for Mungyeong W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sejong W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.40 for Mungyeong W.

Sejong W vs Mungyeong W Prediction— South-Korea

Match Preview & Prediction

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