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Dangjin Citizen vs Chuncheon Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

Dangjin Citizen

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Chuncheon

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.5%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.7%1-16.6%1-24.7%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.1%2-18.6%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.5%3-25.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-19.1%4+-26.4%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 45.5% 2.20 +26.3%

Draw 20.1% 30.8% 3.25 -20.8%

Away win 22.5% 37.0% 2.70 -23.5%

Over 2.5 68.2% 57.8% 1.73 +18.0%

Over 3.5 48.1% 37.6% 2.66 +28.0%

BTTS 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 49.5% 2.02 +32.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 43.7% 2.29 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 57% / xG 2.6-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dangjin Citizen2.6

Chuncheon1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DANGJIN CITIZEN · PPG 1.56

CHUNCHEON · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dangjin Citizen (H) 57.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +26.3%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -20.8%

Chuncheon (A) 22.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dangjin Citizen face Chuncheon in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dangjin Citizen a 57% chance, the draw 20% and Chuncheon 23%, so Dangjin Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Dangjin Citizen and 1.4 for Chuncheon (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dangjin Citizen are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.50 for Chuncheon. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +57.4%. This match finished 3-4.

Dangjin Citizen vs Chuncheon Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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