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Geumsan Insam vs Jinju Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 08:00

Geumsan Insam

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Jinju Citizen

PPG 2.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-111.3%0-210.6%0-36.6%0-4+4.7%1 1-05.6%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-02.6%2-14.9%2-24.6%2-32.9%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 30.8% 3.25 -15.3%

Draw 22.0% 32.3% 3.10 -19.1%

Away win 55.1% 50.0% 2.00 +10.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 34.4% 32.5% 3.08 +5.9%

BTTS 54.3% 60.6% 1.65 -10.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 35.2% 2.84 -12.2%

Away O1.5 56.9% 49.5% 2.02 +14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.3%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 0–2 10.6%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Geumsan Insam0.9

Jinju Citizen1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GEUMSAN INSAM · PPG 1.88

JINJU CITIZEN · PPG 2.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.94 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Geumsan Insam (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.1%

Jinju Citizen (A) 55.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Geumsan Insam face Jinju Citizen in South-Korea - K4 League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Geumsan Insam a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Jinju Citizen 55%, so Jinju Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Geumsan Insam and 1.9 for Jinju Citizen (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Geumsan Insam are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.75 for Jinju Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Geumsan Insam vs Jinju Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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