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Siheung Citizen vs Pocheon Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 08:00

Siheung Citizen

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Pocheon

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-111.7%0-25.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.4%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.7%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.9%3-12.9%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 43.5% 2.30 -15.4%

Draw 27.5% 32.3% 3.10 -8.8%

Away win 35.7% 35.7% 2.80 -0.0%

Over 2.5 43.1% 48.8% 2.05 -11.7%

Over 3.5 21.4% 26.2% 3.82 -10.9%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 31.1% 40.3% 2.48 -22.9%

Away O1.5 31.0% 35.7% 2.80 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 37% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 0–0 11.7%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siheung Citizen1.1

Pocheon1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SIHEUNG CITIZEN · PPG 2.10

POCHEON · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Siheung Citizen (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -15.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.8%

Pocheon (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siheung Citizen face Pocheon in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siheung Citizen a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Pocheon 36%, so Siheung Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Siheung Citizen and 1.0 for Pocheon (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siheung Citizen are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 2.00 for Pocheon. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Siheung Citizen vs Pocheon Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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