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Sejong SA vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:00

Sejong SA

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-17.6%0-27.1%0-34.4%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.4%1-110.1%1-29.5%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.6%2-16.8%2-26.3%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.6%3-13.0%3-22.8%3-31.7%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 38.5% 2.60 -21.0%

Draw 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -14.8%

Away win 46.4% 43.5% 2.30 +6.7%

Over 2.5 62.9% 61.7% 1.62 +1.9%

Over 3.5 39.3% 37.6% 2.66 +4.5%

BTTS 62.0% 65.4% 1.53 -5.1%

Home O1.5 37.5% 45.0% 2.22 -16.8%

Away O1.5 56.9% 48.1% 2.08 +18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.0%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sejong SA1.3

Jungnang Chorus Mustang1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SEJONG SA · PPG 1.75

JUNGNANG CHORUS MUSTANG · PPG 2.12

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sejong SA (H) 30.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -21.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.8%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (A) 46.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sejong SA face Jungnang Chorus Mustang in South-Korea - K4 League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sejong SA a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Jungnang Chorus Mustang 46%, so Jungnang Chorus Mustang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sejong SA and 1.9 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sejong SA are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.12 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 0-5.

Sejong SA vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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