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Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:00

Ulsan Citizen

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Busan Transportation

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-113.3%0-29.2%0-34.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.3%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.4%2-16.1%2-24.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.4%3-12.0%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 28.2% 3.55 +0.7%

Draw 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -8.2%

Away win 44.5% 52.4% 1.91 -15.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.9% 28.6% 3.50 +0.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.5% 3.28 +1.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 48.5% 2.06 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.7%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan Citizen1.0

Busan Transportation1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN CITIZEN · PPG 1.10

BUSAN TRANSPORTATION · PPG 2.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.42, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan Citizen (H) 28.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.2%

Busan Transportation (A) 44.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan Citizen face Busan Transportation in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan Citizen a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Busan Transportation 45%, so Busan Transportation are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ulsan Citizen and 1.4 for Busan Transportation (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan Citizen are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 2.14 for Busan Transportation. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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