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Mokpo City vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:00

Mokpo City

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Yeoju Sejong

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-112.7%0-28.4%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.8%1-113.0%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.0%2-16.6%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 37.7% 2.65 -12.6%

Draw 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Away win 43.7% 42.0% 2.38 +4.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.74 +4.4%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 36.8% 2.72 -16.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 40.3% 2.48 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mokpo City1.0

Yeoju Sejong1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MOKPO CITY · PPG 0.89

YEOJU SEJONG · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mokpo City (H) 29.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -12.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Yeoju Sejong (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mokpo City face Yeoju Sejong in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mokpo City a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Yeoju Sejong 44%, so Yeoju Sejong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mokpo City and 1.3 for Yeoju Sejong (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mokpo City are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.33 for Yeoju Sejong. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Mokpo City vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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