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JS Hercules vs JBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:00

JS Hercules

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

JBK

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.0%0-25.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.7%1-110.7%1-28.6%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.2%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.6%3-14.2%3-23.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 26.3% 3.80 +37.9%

Draw 23.2% 24.4% 4.10 -2.9%

Away win 40.5% 61.0% 1.64 -33.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 40.1% 57.1% 1.75 -29.8%

BTTS 62.4% 73.5% 1.36 -15.1%

Home O1.5 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Away O1.5 50.2% 71.4% 1.40 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -0.2%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.4%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JS Hercules1.5

JBK1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JS HERCULES · PPG 1.17

JBK · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

JS Hercules (H) 36.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +37.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.9%

JBK (A) 40.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

JS Hercules face JBK in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JS Hercules a 36% chance, the draw 23% and JBK 41%, so JBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for JS Hercules and 1.6 for JBK (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JS Hercules are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.67 for JBK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.9%.

JS Hercules vs JBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions