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Perth RedStar vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 07:00

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fremantle City

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.0%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.5%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Draw 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

Away win 29.1% 28.6% 3.50 +1.1%

Over 2.5 54.1% 62.5% 1.60 -13.4%

Over 3.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 55.5% 65.4% 1.53 -15.1%

Home O1.5 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.5%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth RedStar1.6

Fremantle City1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.33

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=45.9%

Win probability 1X2

Perth RedStar (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -15.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.0%

Fremantle City (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth RedStar face Fremantle City in Australia on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth RedStar a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Fremantle City 29%, so Perth RedStar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Perth RedStar and 1.2 for Fremantle City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth RedStar are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.25 for Fremantle City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Perth RedStar vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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