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Balcatta vs Stirling Prediction— Australia

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 07:00

Balcatta

PPG 0.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stirling

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-15.2%0-26.6%0-35.6%0-4+6.7%1 1-02.7%1-16.9%1-28.9%1-37.6%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.8%2-14.7%2-26.0%2-35.1%2-4+6.0%3 3-00.8%3-12.1%3-22.7%3-32.3%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -11.6%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 56.5% 58.8% 1.70 -4.0%

Over 2.5 67.1% 69.4% 1.44 -3.4%

Over 3.5 45.5% 47.6% 2.10 -4.5%

BTTS 63.8% 69.4% 1.44 -8.1%

Home O1.5 41.1% 40.0% 2.50 +2.8%

Away O1.5 67.9% 65.4% 1.53 +3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.8%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 1–3 7.6%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Balcatta1.3

Stirling2.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BALCATTA · PPG 0.63

STIRLING · PPG 1.75

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Balcatta (H) 22.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

Stirling (A) 56.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Balcatta face Stirling in Australia on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Balcatta a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Stirling 56%, so Stirling are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Balcatta and 2.6 for Stirling (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Balcatta are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.75 for Stirling. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.3%.

Balcatta vs Stirling Prediction— Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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